15% Unemployment by 2030? Why Australia Must Prepare Now

Q: What did Joe Hockey say about AI and unemployment?

He said: "My expectation is by 2030, 2031, within five years, we could be facing 15% unemployment in Australia and in the Western world and that's assuming similar participation rates," and that "the biggest losers are going to be young people." His remedy was innovation: "if you take away the incentive to innovate, you are crushing your ability to respond to the future."

By Derek Whitaker, Founder, Blu Sky Factory · Updated 27 October 2026

The short answer

It's one former Treasurer's expectation, not a settled forecast. Joe Hockey said in May 2026 that Australia and the Western world could face 15% unemployment by 2030 or 2031 if AI and robotics spread while we fail to innovate. Whether or not that number arrives, two things are already changing at once: how people earn an income, and how governments and institutions think about taxing and using savings. The time to prepare is before either reaches you.

A number like 15% unemployment sounds like a headline built to scare people. When it comes from a former Treasurer of Australia, it deserves a closer look.

Travis Carter and I spent this week's Greater Wealth on what Joe Hockey said, what it would mean, and what Australians can actually do about it.

The Greater Wealth with Derek Whitaker and Travis Carter, Edge Radio Australia. Also on Rumble, Spotify and all podcast apps.

What actually happened

The economy grew. Did you?

The week we recorded, the national accounts showed Australia's economy grew 0.4% in the June quarter and 2.1% over the year. But GDP per person was flat for the quarter, and productivity went backwards over the year. As I put it on the show, the economy is growing, "but is the individual Australian actually becoming more prosperous?"

That gap is the heart of it. Hockey's other point was about the budget: he said welfare payments already exceed personal income tax collections in the UK and much of Europe, and that Australia isn't far off. If unemployment rose sharply, the money to fund existing programmes would have to come from somewhere, and when income can't carry the load, governments look at capital instead.

From a welfare state to an innovative state

My view on the show was that the answer isn't to fight the technology. "I think we've got to shift our mindset from a welfare state to an innovative state." And rather than trying to fight AI, the question is "how can we leverage for the AI?"

Australia has a history here. Travis pointed out that the countries that boomed after the last great shift in manufacturing were Japan, Taiwan, China, and now India and Vietnam. We largely walked away from manufacturing, and we've been sliding backwards ever since. Selling resources out of the ground isn't a plan for the next 30 years.

Which jobs are actually in the firing line

Travis disagreed with Hockey on one point. Hockey expects young people to be the biggest losers. Travis thinks "the innovation is actually going to come from young people," because they have time to try new things. The harder road, he argued, is for people later in their careers: "If you've got a 55-year-old bookkeeper, and then they lose their job to AI, how hard is it going to be for that person to re-skill?"

And it isn't only office work. As Travis put it bluntly, "Laboring jobs are in the firing line as well." Humanoid robots are already being trialled in factories, and they don't need breaks, super or overtime. They can work around the clock. From an employer's point of view, the arithmetic is obvious, which is exactly why it matters.

Can governments simply tax the robots? It's harder than it sounds. Do you tax a printer for printing, or a steel mill for producing steel? Businesses already pay tax on what they earn. Push too hard and the capital simply goes offshore.

€10 trillion, and what was actually said

Then there's the other half of the story. In Paris, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, described around €10 trillion of European household savings sitting idle in bank deposits, much of it invested outside Europe, and set out how Europe intends to put it to work through its Savings and Investments Union: securitisation, bank and insurer investment, market integration and common supervision.

It's important to be precise here, because social media wasn't. As I said on the show, "A lot of people on social media are coming and saying, well, they want to confiscate individual bank balances. It's not what's being proposed here. But what is being proposed here is how can we deploy people's savings towards these incentives."

Still, it says something about how institutions think about other people's money. I've had my own bank accounts frozen, and the lesson stays with you: "You realize you think it's your money until it's not."

Two things changing at once

This is the real story. "There's two things that are happening simultaneously here. The first is how people earn income... The second is how institutions are thinking about savings, investment, and capital."

And time is shorter than it looks. "There's only four more Christmases till 2030." We're living through a period of acceleration, where things that used to take six months now take two weeks. The sooner you decide to pivot, the better, rather than being caught out with your head in the sand.

Your questions, answered

Unemployment and AI

Will Australia have 15% unemployment by 2030?

Nobody knows. It's former Treasurer Joe Hockey's expectation, from a Sky News interview in May 2026, that Australia and the Western world could face 15% unemployment by 2030 or 2031 if AI and robotics spread while we fail to innovate. It isn't an official forecast, but the trends behind it are real.

What did Joe Hockey say about AI and unemployment?

He said: "My expectation is by 2030, 2031, within five years, we could be facing 15% unemployment in Australia and in the Western world and that's assuming similar participation rates," and that "the biggest losers are going to be young people." His remedy was innovation: "if you take away the incentive to innovate, you are crushing your ability to respond to the future."

Will AI cause mass unemployment in Australia?

It will certainly change which jobs exist. Whether that becomes mass unemployment depends on how fast people and businesses adapt, and on whether policy encourages innovation or holds it back. Headline unemployment figures can also hide big structural shifts underneath.

Which jobs are most at risk from AI and robots?

Routine information work such as bookkeeping and administration, and, increasingly, manual and labouring work as humanoid robots improve. As Travis Carter said on the show, "Laboring jobs are in the firing line as well."

Will young people or older workers be hit hardest?

Joe Hockey expects young people to be the biggest losers. Travis Carter disagreed on the show: he thinks young people will drive the innovation, and that it's harder for people late in their careers to re-skill into entirely new industries.

Tax, welfare and the economy

Is Australia's economy growing?

Yes, but not per person. In the June quarter of 2026 the economy grew 0.4% (2.1% over the year), while GDP per person was flat for the quarter and productivity fell over the year. The economy grew; the average Australian didn't get ahead.

Can the government tax robots?

It's been proposed, but it's hard to do. A robot is a piece of equipment, like a printer or a steel mill, and businesses already pay tax on what they earn. Tax it too heavily and investment moves offshore.

Will Australia get a universal basic income?

There's no plan for one. Some technology leaders argue for a universal income because they expect mass unemployment. Joe Hockey's warning was about funding: as welfare payments approach income tax collections, governments look to tax capital instead of income.

Why are governments shifting from taxing income to taxing capital?

Because when fewer people earn taxable wages and welfare costs rise, income tax alone can't fund the budget. Joe Hockey warned that this pushes governments toward taxes on capital, such as wealth, inheritances and the family home.

Your savings

What did Ursula von der Leyen say about €10 trillion of savings?

That around €10 trillion of European household savings sits idle in bank deposits, much of it invested outside Europe, and that Europe intends to put it to work for its own businesses through the Savings and Investments Union: securitisation, bank and insurer investment, market integration and common supervision.

Is the EU going to confiscate people's savings?

No. The Savings and Investments Union is about channelling savings into investment through banking and market products, not taking money out of people's accounts. As Derek said on the show, "It's not what's being proposed here."

Can the government take my savings?

Not in the way social media claims. But the rules around savings, super and bank accounts can change, and accounts can be frozen. Derek has had his own frozen, and the lesson he took was: "You realize you think it's your money until it's not." Understanding where your money sits, and who sets the rules over it, is part of preparing.

Preparing

How can I prepare for AI changing my job?

Start now, while you have time to choose. Learn how AI is used in your own line of work, think about something you could own rather than only a job you hold, and understand where your savings sit. There are only a few years until 2030.

Where can Australians learn to use AI in their work or business?

Blu Sky Factory, an Australian education company founded by Derek Whitaker, runs a free masterclass called Thrive in the Age of AI for business owners and professionals who aren't in the tech industry, at bluskyfactory.com/ai-training, followed by live AI programmes for those who want to go further.

Three questions to ask this week

Which part of my job could an AI or a robot do in five years' time?
If my income stopped for six months, what would I live on, and what would I learn?
Do I understand where my savings and super actually sit, and who sets the rules over them?

If the first question is uncomfortable, the free masterclass is the place to start.

Sources

Education only. Nothing here is personal financial, tax or legal advice.